Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Trades
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- Volume (USDC)
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- Last trade
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- Resolves
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Implied probability from trades in USDC
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No priced trades yet
A market's series begins at its first trade against collateral. Shares moved between wallets do not price it.
Read from the market’s own trades: an outcome token is an asset, and what was paid for a share is the probability the buyer put on it. A dot marks a bucket somebody traded in; between them the line holds the last traded level, which is what the market was still saying. The two sides do not sum to 100% — the gap is the spread — and each side ends at its own last trade rather than being carried to today.
Order book resting on chain, priced in USDC
bid 15.00%ask —one-sided
Every order is its own application holding what it offers in escrow, so this is the whole resting book as the chain has it — not a venue’s view of it. A book with one side and none on the other is normal. If Alpha Arcade’s own panel shows more depth than this, it is showing off-chain interest alongside the resting orders.