Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? : March 31, 2027
- Trades
- 3
- Volume (USDC)
- 95.04
- Last trade
- 2026-09-08 09:00Z
- Resolves
- 2027-01-01 04:59Z
Implied probability from trades in USDC
YES 34.0%NO 58.8%
Read from the market’s own trades: an outcome token is an asset, and what was paid for a share is the probability the buyer put on it. A dot marks a bucket somebody traded in; between them the line holds the last traded level, which is what the market was still saying. The two sides do not sum to 100% — the gap is the spread — and each side ends at its own last trade rather than being carried to today.
Order book resting on chain, priced in USDC
bid 40.33%ask —one-sided
Every order is its own application holding what it offers in escrow, so this is the whole resting book as the chain has it — not a venue’s view of it. A book with one side and none on the other is normal. If Alpha Arcade’s own panel shows more depth than this, it is showing off-chain interest alongside the resting orders.